International Trade

Keep in mind, the goal is to create a future plan to guide you along the way. If the weather is clear and no visibility (standard uncertainty) or if there is fog and dust raised by the storm (high uncertainty). A good manager is fully aware of what constitutes the knowledge to use strategic planning, its scope, which she can generate, keep in mind that among the different techniques of strategic planning can be identified: Financial projections analysis of trends Intelligence Competitiveness Brainstorming (brainstorming) Scenario Analysis Each of them has a different value depending on the timing and circumstances. Perhaps in normal times (ie when uncertainty levels are unusual for the industry), financial projections are a suitable tool, since the bases and assumptions have a certain stability. While in high uncertainty environments (or processing), brainstorming and scenario analysis are the most appropriate. Do not forget also that in highly uncertain environments, the signals’ direct environment are not reliable, because of which must be filtered and analyzed for their impact and focus to produce adjustments in the strategy, or what would be the same in this case, correct the settings. By the same author: Wells Fargo Bank.

One effect of this strategic approach is that while setting a course in the midst of the storm, softens environmental stimuli. While it is not desirable in scenarios create a bubble that the company away from reality, if it is important to create a micro-climate that protects and to derive maximum productivity of the resources that are operated at the level that is operating . No means looking only inward forgetting its environment means taking only environment what is vital to avoid unnecessary contamination. Perhaps, in situations of high uncertainty, it is not advisable to take long term decisions, especially as regards investment. However, if you decide to do so, the risk would be bounded within the limits of the stage. This applies also to issues such as spending, research and development, product launches or services and information campaigns / advertising. Do not forget that uncertainty is something I live forever, but that sometimes is more uncertain than others.

Scenario analysis should consider the set of assumptions / premises (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate risk, legal, external openness, fiscal and monetary policy, regulation and competition levels and the working environment, etc.) are subject to uncertainty and adapt to business conditions. It is recommended that this technique is supplemented by brainstorming sessions. If levels of staff participation in the process are adequately management, the environment of high uncertainty can create a relationship of loyalty and belonging as strong as it was not in normal times. The planning horizon under uncertainty is given by far the biggest event planned, for which there are elements and feasibility of quantification available. But beyond the horizon, the most important is the frequency of review / update, as it will have regular readings of reality weighted stage (and not vice versa). When uncertainty is greater than the certainty, then one can say that we are in a state of emergency. When this situation lasts long, we are in crisis. And if this drags on, the range of options is wide … *

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